Betting with a purpose

Every bet should have a reason you could say out loud. There are only two.

• For value: worse hands will call. You want a call.
• As a bluff: better hands will fold. You want a fold.

If neither is true, checking is usually better. A bet that only better hands call, and only worse hands fold to, loses both ways.

A value bet makes money when, of the hands that call, you beat more than you lose to. So ask which hands in villain’s range will call, and how many of those you beat.

Size it for the hands you want to call. Bet too big and only better hands continue. Against a calling station, bet bigger and with more hands; against a nit, expect only strong hands to call a big bet.

A pure bluff wins only when villain folds, and the chance that they do is your fold equity. A bluff breaks even when villain folds as often as the bet is a share of the pot it creates: bet ÷ (pot + bet).

Good bluffs come from hands that can’t win at a showdown, such as missed draws, ideally holding a card villain would need to call. And they need an opponent who can fold: a calling station gives you little fold equity.

A semi-bluff is a bet with a draw. It wins two ways: villain folds now, or you hit later. The second way means it needs fewer folds than a pure bluff.

Fold equity turns a losing call into a winning bet: that is the power of being the one who bets.

Bets are measured against the pot. Small bets, about a third, risk little and keep weaker hands in. Big bets, two-thirds of the pot or more, charge the draws and build the pot for strong hands. An overbet, bigger than the pot, suits a polarised range of very strong hands and bluffs.

The size also sets villain’s price: a third of the pot asks them for 20% equity, the pot for 33.3%. On the river, use one size for your value bets and your bluffs, so the size gives nothing away.

The player who raised before the flop usually has the stronger range, with more big pairs and big aces. Betting the flop to carry that on is a continuation bet, or c-bet. It works best on boards that favour the raiser’s range, such as K♠7♦2♣king of spades, 7 of diamonds, 2 of clubs, and less well on low, connected boards like 8♥7♥5♣8 of hearts, 7 of hearts, 5 of clubs, which hit the caller more often.

Board texture decides both how often and how big. On dry boards, bet small and often. On wet boards, bet less often but bigger. Out of position, c-bet less often than in position.

The Analyser values each bet and raise size against the player type you face: how often that type folds to each size, and your equity against the hands that keep going. Those figures rest on the type, so they carry the estimate badge. Bets and raises are valued after the flop; before the flop, raises follow your profile’s charts, such as all-in or fold on a short stack in a tournament and the iso-raise against limpers.

Rules R6 and R7 choose a bet or raise only when the best size beats checking or calling by your style’s margin: 10% of the pot for Tight, 5% for Balanced and 2.5% for Aggressive. The Analyser’s Betting calculator and the free Bet sizing calculator show the folds each size needs to break even.

In the Trainer, when it’s checked to you, the buttons are Check, Bet small (⅓–½ pot) and Bet big (⅔ pot or more).

Value betBluffFold equitySemi-bluffBet sizingOverbetPolarised rangeContinuation betBoard textureDry and wet boardsPaired boardRainbow, two-tone and monotoneCalling stationNitBlockersEstimatePlayer typeRules R1 to R12Trainer